Researchers: AI can make African elections more efficient, but trust must be built and proper rules put in place

Time magazine has dubbed 2024 a "super election year". An astonishing 4 billion people are eligible to vote in countries across the world this year. Many are on the African continent, where presidential, parliamentary and general elections have already been held or are set for the latter half of the year.

Artificial intelligence (AI) will play a major role in many countries' elections. In fact, it already does. AI systems are used in a number of ways. They analyze large amounts of data, like voter patterns. They run automated chatbots for voter engagement. They authenticate voters and detect cyber threats.

But many pundits and ordinary people alike seem unsure what to make of the use of AI in African electoral processes. It is often described as simultaneously promising and perilous.

We are experts on transnational governance whose ongoing research aims to define the challenges AI could pose to legitimate governance in Africa. We want to help create a base of empirical evidence that the continent's electoral bodies can use to harness the potential benefits of AI and similar technologies while not ignoring the risks.

The effects of AI on electoral democracy in Africa will fundamentally depend on two factors: first, popular legitimacy and trust in AI, and second, the capability of African states to govern, regulate, and enforce oversight on the use of AI by all political stakeholders, including ruling and opposition parties.

Varied examples

It is too simplistic to say that the use of AI in elections is all good or all bad. The truth is that it can be both, fundamentally depending on two key factors: the public's trust in AI and the ability of African states to regulate the use of AI by key stakeholders.

Identity politics, diversity, and digital illiteracy must also be taken into account. These all play a role in the rise of polarization and whether political constituencies are particularly susceptible to disinformation and misinformation.

For instance, during Kenya's 2017 election, consulting firm Cambridge Analytica allegedly used AI to target voters with disinformation. This potentially influenced the outcome.

In South Africa, there is increasing awareness that anonymous influencers, often positioned at the extremes of the political spectrum, contribute significantly to online misinformation and disinformation. These figures, who largely remain unknown to the general public, introduce highly emotive and polarizing content into discussions without live and adequate moderation—often through automated processes.