'Risks of nuclear terrorism are high and growing.' New tools, alliances, renewed focus needed, experts say

For roughly 80 years, the United States has managed the threat of nuclear terrorism through nonproliferation treaties, agency programs, intelligence activities, international monitoring support and more, withstanding the Cold War, the fall of the Soviet Union, and 9/11.

A National Academies committee led by Northeastern University's Stephen Flynn wants to ensure the U.S. remains prepared.

"The issue of nuclear terrorism remains very much a real one, there are enormous stakes involved and the risks are high, but the issue has been falling off the radar screen of the American public over the last 15 years, and the skill set of people involved in managing it is aging out," says Flynn, professor of political science and founding director of the Global Resilience Institute at Northeastern.

"We really need to keep our eye on the ball. It was quite timely for Congress to call for an assessment of this risk and provide recommendations for staying on top of this issue."

In the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, Congress mandated the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Agency to work with the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine to assess the current state of nuclear terrorism and nuclear weapons and materials and advise the government on how to handle such issues.

Flynn, an expert on national and homeland security, was appointed chair of the committee in 2022. The committee released its final report on Tuesday.

The report finds that a lot has changed since the issue of nuclear terrorism was forefront in Americans' minds following 9/11 and the buildup to the Iraq War.

"We had a war on terror after 9/11, but that didn't succeed in eliminating the terrorism threat," Flynn says. "Terrorism continues to morph."

The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas War, which occurred as the committee finalized its report, demonstrates this morphing of terrorism.

The involvement of Hezbollah as a proxy of Iran, and the involvement of Hamas—both groups are designated terrorist groups by the U.S. State Department—highlight a world where non-states and nuclear-seeking states collaborate in warfare, Flynn says.

"The designation between non-state vs. state actors is blurry," Flynn says. "The assessment reveals we have to be focused on where those two things may overlap."

Also "blurring" is the line between domestic terrorism and international terrorism, Flynn says.

"Particularly when you look on the far right, international terror groups are recruiting Americans into these organizations, and Americans are reaching out to extremist organizations that have terrorism elements," Flynn says.

The nuclear world continues to morph as well.

There are now eight countries that have announced successful nuclear detonations: The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea. Israel is also generally considered to have nuclear weapons but has never announced it.